Why are there so many houses for sale in Bernal

As of today, there are 32 single family homes on the market in Bernal Heights, and its been in the last month or so, up to 35 homes. That's quite a lot and it certainly shows in the time on the market. To put some perspective on things, last year at this time there were more like 15 to 17 houses for sale at any time in the spring and the year before that it topped out in the 20s.

Are things really bad ? I've heard tell that it takes about 30 to 35 houses on the market to make a buyers market in bernal, but I just rules of thumb are always a bit simpler that reality. I took a look at the map of all of the active listings in Bernal and counted the ones that were one or two blocks away from either US101, or Rt280. I included streets like holiday, franconia, 800 block of peralta, Justin in St Mary's Park and anything on or south of crescent. There were a few homes that I would consider a bit too close to Mission, but I didn't count those. Just the ones near the highways, or too close to the projects or crescent. I counted 18 that were Geographically challenged. that's 56% for just a small sliver of the area of our neighborhood.

The difference in price between these houses is interesting too. In the highway group, the price per square foot is $534/sqft while the hill and north-west averages $669, yet the average total price is higher for the highway group since the average size is much larger average ~1400 sq ft vs ~1100 in the later group. Days on the market (which is not a good measure because it does not measure days until sold, but some point in time) is 51 vs 49. which is not much difference.

In all I think that the market is dropping for everyone; I've seen lots of great deals this year above Cortland and on really great streets and locations. Further, if we are comparing to last year, it would not be reasonable to say that on any normal year there would be 14 listings on the hill and just 1 or 2 close to the highway. Inventory is definitely up across the board. Though, it certainly is interesting to see that such a small portion of Bernal makes up the greatest share of the active listings.

SF Mayor appoints new head of housing authority

Mayor Newsom Just appointed a new head of the housing authority in San Francisco. Great job Gavin. Its so nice to see someone actually doing something proactive and positive to approach the problems of housing costs for lower income San Franciscans, rather than taking aim at particular groups of business men (and women). If the likes of the board of supervisors and the SF tenants Union would stop trying to grab from the industrious and give indiscriminately to tenants who need subsidy or not, but rather support programs which provide assistance to those who need help, life would not be such a difficult place to exist for those in the middle.

Well, enough preaching, and back to the point. Good job Mayor. Now, lets hope that this new guy actually lives up to his reputation.

Oh my god.. Its been over a year since I posted on this blog. wow, how time flies :]

Well I now work at "Home San Francisco" a small broker in Bernal Heights. I've also narrowed my focus and I head a group (consisting of .... me) which represents investors and owners of apartment and mixed use buildings. We're just in the midst of creating a name for said group so stay tuned. I'll try to keep you up to date.

Rental Advice

I belong to a local parents group / email list and recently replied to
a woman's request for help regarding some troubles she'd had finding an
apartment for herself and 2 kids:

I'm searching for a new place to live for myself and my two girls, but
I'm starting to get the distinct impression that landlords are less
than thrilled about my children. (One woman told me over the phone
that I wasn't a good candidate because I was a single mom and she
didn't think I was going to pay the rent. How she decided that without
any knowledge of my income or expenses was beyond me.)

Are there any renters on the list? Has anyone encountered problems
with trying to move the family into a new place? Any suggestions?

I offered the following advice:

As a realtor and landlord I know it is illegal to discriminate on the
basis of familial status. On the other hand, some people (landlords) do
discriminate. I would suggest that a couple of things impress
landlords:

1) most kids are relatively well behaved, meet the landlord at the
property along w/ your kids (when the are well rested and well fed &
happy) and show her/him that they are well behaved and they are not
screaming banshies.
2) getting the appointment to see the apartment does not require you to
say that you have two kids.
3) references from former landlords go a long way, as do credit reports
and employment references. on the other hand, fiends, relatives, the
fact that you go to church, or sob stories, etc. do not.
4) finally, presentation, matters a lot: speaking well, making sure
your kids are not crying in the background when you are on the phone,
nice appearance and clean car etc, mean a lot to a landlord. Think
about it, if you care for your car and yourself, there is a hope that
you will care for the landlords property. If you don't, the landlord
won't rent to you.

I'm not a big fan of the tenants union, they are reactionary and a
negative force in this city. I'd point you to the SF Rent board before I
went to the TU. I would also point you in the direction of the california
apartment association, which has a "renters" section on their website
(caanet.org) or the SF apartment association. I don't know if they have
a list of landlords that have availabilities, but their members are the
most educated about the law and proactive about doing business in a
fair way, so they are the landlords that I would want to rent from.

I'll just offer this last bit of advice: you don't want to rent to
someone who is going to discriminate against you on the basis that you
have kids. Those people are not good landlords anyhow.

best of luck

Another list member replied to my post this way:

As a realtor and a landlord, of course Michael Sundius is "not a big
fan of the tenants union." In a city where housing is so expensive
and homelessness (including for working families) so extensive, for a
landlord to call the tenants union "reactionary" and "a negative
force" is as predictable as it is ludicrous. For anyone who cannot
afford to own their own home in the city and who must therefore rent,
the tenants union is the best source of information and support
available. I say this as a rentor who has lived and rented in San
Francisco for 23 years, with impeccable references from a number of
landlords, and as a Certified Law Student currently working on a
landlord/tenant case.

Michael's suggested response to illegal discrimination is not to
oppose the discrimination but to avoid dealing with those people. If
the civil rights movement had followed that advice Black people would
still be sitting in the back of the bus.

And poof.. we have ourselves the age old disagreement. I'll add the
rest as comments for readability. Please I'd love to hear your thoughts
about this and the opportunity to air mine in as well.

I have to smile at reading that a Berkeley Rent Board member (Chris Kavenaugh) was arrested
for fraud recently: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/09/22/BA0ASBT8I.DTL

and even better, he was discovered because he was making a stink because he wanted to maintain property rights that he (as a tenant) was not entitled to. It just goes to show, these tenant activists will go to any length to squat on others property.
s

I posted the Bernal Heights real estate statistics for March today. There was a big drop off in number of sales for the 3 month trailing averages since December was such a big month, yet the distribution of sales over the last 3 months for # of bedrooms and styles of homes was largely unchanged. Victorians and 3 bedroom homes being the bigges sellers, though ironically only one 3br Victorian has sold in the last 3 months.

The number of homes for the month was up just 1 to 10 and average price was up 5.5% for the month to $868k and the number of homes on the market and in contract were up 15% so it does seem that the market is starting to pick up nicely. We have also seen several properties come onto the market in the first few days of April and expect to see a further jump in listings this week after Easter when the season really starts. Inventory is still fairly low for this time of year at 11 homes yet buyers are still acting very cautious; thus the market seems pretty balanced between buyers and sellers.

Nothing new in the multi-unit market, no new sales occurred thus the numbers for the 3 month average are down though the prices are up just under 9% to $787k. There are a few new listings of multi unit buildings and one is in contract. It seems as though multi unit buildings across SF have not seen buyers responding and I feel that the inventory is growing.

Condo and TIC prices and numbers were basically stable in March and the condo factor remained not significant.

Again, I feel that while the market in Bernal Heights and San Francisco is much smaller than in years before, its is very well balanced between buyers and Sellers. Properties priced low will still get bid up, yet over priced properties will stay on the market waiting for the perfect buyer. I feel that while extremely cautious, there are still many buyers lurking in the wings and this is causing the SF market to be extremely efficient; now, its even more difficult to find that great bargan property. For Multi-unit and investment properties I wonder if we'll see a bit of a dip in prices as inventory continues to inch up. In all rents continue to rise so sellers of multi units may continue to be increasingly patient. Single family homes, on the other hand, seem to be getting snapped up quite quickly.

Props in Play

So from time to time I'll post this. The following is a list of properties that I know are in play, but may not be listed so I won't give all the details for every property right here, for people to get an idea if that is what they are looking for. If you are interested in any of these you should probably give me a call. I always am coming across new stuff like this so if you call please ask if there is anything else that has come up recently.

1) 107 Anderson Classic Victorian near the top of Bernal Hill on the south side. 4 Br 1 Ba. $899k
2) 2 unit (both 1br 1ba) Current owner is just finishing the rehab and its looking totally sweet. Spectacular location near shopping, public transport. Totally turnkey. Totally awesome, wait till you see the pent-house and roof deck
3) San Francisco corner market / liquor store that does a good business
4) 6 room Victorian in Bernal on upper part of Crescent. dining room converted to 3rd bedroom 1 ba plus unwarrented 1/2 bath. nice looking building.
5) Mid century 2br 1 bath fixer. between Jarboe and Cortland. Easy walk to shops and transport. a wonderful neighborhood.
6) Bernal home on double lot, again easy walk to shops transport and wonderful neighborhood.
7) Bernal Mixed use.

Do you know any other's that are in play? do you have any interest in the ones listed above? Call me.